Rizal Philippines
Vacant malls - indicator of poor consumer spending
From Casey Research
Yesterday, I saw two important presentations one on Bitcoin (its origin and the concept) at TV and the other on currency market effect by Douglas Casey at the internet.
The Casey presentation explains why all the predictions about the US economy crashing down because of nearly $20 trillion American public debt are wrong. They are looking at the wrong indicators.
The correct indicator is the currency market which about $4 trillion a day. Its the single biggest market in the world. The status of the currency market determines the health of all other markets in the economy.
The following were preceded by currency collapse:
1. Lehman brothers problem
2 Shanghai market collapse
3. Bankruptcy of Fanny Mae, Ginna Mae and
Some indicators:
1. Amount of consumer debt;
2. Amount of consumer spending
3. Money velocity
4. PIling up of inventories
The stock market value could be halved in the coming collapse there could be as much as 50,000 bankruptcies (as is happening in the energy sector) and millions will be out of job.
Interest rates have risen by as much as 91% over the last 10 years. And the govt, the Fed has no more power to control the financial/currency market.
There are some good haven in investment: and mostly in gold mining and gold. and other recession proof industries like health care
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