Break out the bubbly, because it's Friday in the
Wall Street Daily Nation!
For the newbies in the group, once a week I embrace the adage that a picture is worth a thousand words. And I select a handful of graphics to convey important economic or investment insights.
This week, I'm dishing on the most shocking GDP report in the world, the uncanny correlation between the stock market and joblessness, and the one statistic that points to another banner year for dividend stocks.
One thing before we get started...
If you haven't done so already, make sure to reserve a seat for Tuesday's
Tech & Innovation Daily webinar. It's called
How to Corner the Tech Market by March 30, and it's 100% free for
Wall Street Daily subscribers.
During the webinar, I'll provide specific and timely opportunities for attendees. Better yet, to make sure everyone can participate, we're airing the webinar at two separate times -
2:30 PM and 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, February 5.
Just
go here to verify your interest. That way we can give you more information as the event approaches. Remember, this is completely free for members.
Now, on to this week's
Friday Charts...
The Mysterious GDP Miss
Boy, do I look stupid. Or do I?
It was only last week that
I told you to expect an uptick in economic growth in the United States in 2013. And then Wednesday, the Commerce Department shocked the world, revealing that the economy contracted 0.1% in the fourth quarter - instead of growing 1.1%, as was widely expected.
But fear not. The unexpected drop can be blamed on a massive decline in military spending related to the drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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As you can see, spending plummeted $40 billion quarter-over-quarter.
The good news? The rest of the economy is humming along just fine.
For instance, personal consumption increased 2.2%. Durable goods spiked 13.9%. Equipment and software increased 12.4%. And real residential fixed investment jumped 15.3%. (Anyone still doubting that the real estate recovery is legit? Didn't think so.)
The list of positive contributors goes on. So fear not. The U.S. economy isn't on the precipice of another recession.
Stocks Follow Earnings... and Jobs!
It was certainly a January to remember. The S&P 500 kicked off the year with a strong rally, rising almost 3%. That's the fastest start to the year since 1997.
Don't kill the messenger. But a pullback could be on the horizon in the short term.
Am I saying that because I think stocks have risen too far, too fast? Nope. It's because this week's initial jobless claims jumped 38,000, to 368,000.
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As I've noted before, an uncanny inverse correlation exists between initial jobless claims and stocks. As claims go down, stocks go up. And vice versa.
So if next week's report includes another uptick in claims, don't be surprised if stocks take a breather. Since the long-term trend remains bullish, though, we should treat any pullback as a buying opportunity.
Mo' Money, Please!
After a record-setting year of payouts, you'd think companies couldn't afford to keep doling out more and more dividends. But you'd be wrong!
The dividend payout ratio of 28% for S&P 500 companies remains freakishly below the long-term average. In fact, it's resting at a 30-year low.
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The end result? We should expect another year of record dividend payments. And I'm not the only one who thinks so.
Standard & Poor's Howard Silverblatt does, too. What's more, he expects companies in
all industry sectors to spread the wealth. Giddy up!
If you're not already signed up for our sister publication,
Dividends & Income Daily, what are you waiting for? It's 100% free and 100% guaranteed to provide you with timely dividend-investing ideas.
That's it for today. Before you sign off, do us a favor. Let us know what you think about this weekly column - or any of our recent work at
Wall Street Daily - by sending an email to
feedback@wallstreetdaily.com, or leaving a comment on our
website.
Ahead of the tape,
![Lou Bassenese]()
Louis Basenese
![Turn on images]() |
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