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Tuesday, January 29, 2013

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Myth-Busting Monday - Issue #387 from Wall St. Daily



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From: Wall Street Daily <wallstreetdaily@wallstreetdaily.com>
Date: Mon, Jan 28, 2013 at 7:41 PM
Subject: Myth-Busting Monday - Issue #387




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Washington Insider Comes Out of the Shadows With Shocking Announcement
He has been the secret man behind some of the biggest movements and most successful companies in America today. But for over a decade he has made a point to stay behind the scenes... That is, until now... Today, something so big has begun to happen in America that he's decided to come out of retirement and reveal his true identity for the first time on this scale. And in this controversial video, he'll tell you about the coming event that's going to change your life.

Are Stock Buybacks Always Bullish for Share Prices?
By LOUIS BASENESE, Chief Investment Strategist

Lou Bassenese
In the past few weeks, scientific-testing equipment company, Agilent (A), announced a $500-million stock buyback.

Metal components and products maker, Precision Castparts (PCP), unveiled a $750-million stock repurchase program.

Not to be outdone, khaki pants maker for the masses, Gap (GPS), announced a $1-billion repurchase program.

Shareholders should be rejoicing, right? After all, stock buybacks imply that management believes their stock is cheap. And cheap is good.

More significantly, conventional wisdom holds that stock buybacks reduce the total number of shares outstanding. And if you spread earnings over fewer shares - voila! - earnings per share increases, making the stock more valuable.

The only problem? Conventional wisdom isn't always right. And in honor of Myth-Busting Monday, it's time to prove why stock buybacks aren't always bullish.

Less Than Meets the Eye
Riddle me this...

If stock buybacks reduce shares outstanding, then how is it that (according to Dow Jones Indices) the 500 largest U.S. companies spent roughly $1 trillion on share purchases since 1998 - and yet the actual number of shares outstanding grew by 7% over that period?

Or that, despite record periods of stock purchases, FactSet noted a 2.7% year-over-year quarterly increase in share counts for S&P 500 companies going back to 2005.

The number crunchers must have made a mistake, right? Nope.

It's just simple math. Although companies repurchased gobs of stock over each respective period, they ended up issuing more than they bought back.

Some shares could have been issued to fund an acquisition, or to raise additional capital via a secondary offering. And more still could have been issued to provide shares for employees exercising stock option grants.

Long story short, as Andrew Lapthorne, Head of Quantitative Analysis at Société Générale, says, "Share buybacks get misinterpreted. Many people see them as a return to shareholders." When, in actuality, many serve to prevent a dilution of shareholders.

The takeaway? Before we blindly consider a buyback announcement a bullish indicator, we need to dig deeper.

Here's why...

Trust, But Verify
Even if a company announces a buyback, it's not required to follow through. And a meaningful amount of executives renege (about 25% each year since 1985, according to Birinyi Associates data).

Accordingly, we should verify management's track record of making good on their buyback promises. It's easy to do so at Morningstar.com. The site allows us to view five years' (or five quarters') worth of "weighted average shares outstanding."

If that number is flat or rising, management is either not following through, or they're issuing a boatload of shares, too.

However, if the number is consistently declining, then it is, indeed, a bullish indictor.

How bullish? Studies vary, so let's go with the most conservative out of Credit Suisse Quantitative Research. It found that companies that consistently buy back shares return almost 2% more per year than companies with less regular or erratic buyback histories.

Every extra percentage point in profits counts, so I'm not about to argue with an extra 2% per year. Candidly, though, I'd prefer more profits than that. Wouldn't you?

The good news is, we can get it. We just need to add another indicator to the mix.

A Better Bullish Indicator: Buybacks And Insider Buying
Like I said before, a repurchase program signals that management thinks shares are undervalued. But if executives truly believe shares are cheap, wouldn't they start buying shares in their personal accounts, too?

Turns out that if they do, shares perform even better.

A study by Professor Shrikant Jategaonkar at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville found that stocks subject to both repurchases and insider buying outperformed other stocks in the sample - by 29 percentage points over four years.

Stocks subject to just repurchases only outperformed by about nine percentage points.

That's 10 times better than just focusing on stock buybacks based on the Credit Suisse finding above.

Bottom line: In theory, buybacks are good for investors. But in practice, we need to make sure management is actually reducing the share count before we treat it as a bullish indicator. For the best results, we should also insist on insider buying.

Ahead of the tape,

Lou Signature
Louis Basenese

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If You Have Just $50...
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Friday Charts: Real Estate Recovery, Rotten Apple and Dividends
In this week's edition, we're sharing an ugly-looking Apple chart and the number one reason why real estate prices will keep rising.

Two Timely Contrarian Trades
Today I'm sharing new data on two contrarian ideas I previously put on your radar, to finally convince you to do something different from the majority before it's too late.

Look Out for This Positive GDP Surprise
Today I'm launching another semi-regular column, Think Contrarian, in which I'm going to routinely encourage you to flex your contrarian muscles.
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Jorge U. Saguinsin
To "be the best, do your best, expect the best" always

Small Business Brief For Jan. 28 - Feb. 03, 2013



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Thriving Business <newsletter@thrivingbusiness.com>
Date: Mon, Jan 28, 2013 at 6:30 PM
Subject: Small Business Brief For Jan. 28 - Feb. 03, 2013




  Follow Us On Twitter --  Join Us On Facebook --  Visit Our Blog

January 28 - February 03, 2013

Here are the top 10 things you MUST know this week:
1. Internet Explorer Versions 6-8 Need Patch Downloaded Immediately

On January 14th, Microsoft issued a security patch for its commercial web browser, Internet Explorer. The patch is only for Internet Explorer versions 6-8, not the latest two versions, 9 and 10. The 6-8 versions had a "Critical" severity rating due to their vulnerability to malicious hackers remotely executing code to computers. For those of you that never update your Internet Explorer browser, I would suggest finding out what version you have before it's too late. Click here if you need the security update.
  


2.  Wayne Dobson Does NOT Have Your Cell Phone – Despite What Sprint's Phone Tracker Might Say

For the past two years, 59-year-old North Las Vegas resident Wayne Dobson has had people pester him at all hours of the day about the whereabouts of their Sprint phone. They've even shown him through phone tracking applications that he has their phone.  It has gotten so bad that he put a sign at his door saying something to the effect of "I Don't Have Your Phone."  You may be thinking that he must have stolen the phones if people can prove it's in his house. Unfortunately, this story isn't that simple. Officers and people who tracked their phone to Dobson's location have searched his house and found nothing.  The problem is most likely a software problem that is incorrectly translating coordinates to Dobson's house. Keep this in mind if you have a Sprint phone and then happen to lose it.



3.   How To Use Coupon Codes To Increase Your Sales

For many of you, coupons may seem like a pretty straightforward way to increase customer conversions. Rock-bottom discounts, however, can affect your business in a negative way if you can't up-sell or cross-sell any of your other products or services in an effective manner. So be sure to look at coupon strategies that work before you start cutting your prices. 



4. Green Dot's New Bank Account Makes Banking Easier For The Small Business Owner On-The-Go

On January 15th, Green Dot, the largest provider of prepaid debit cards in the U.S., announced it was launching a smartphone-friendly new bank account called GoBank. GoBank can be set up quickly on your phone using their mobile site or apps, and members can send money to friends and family for free through emails, text messages, and Facebook notifications. Since most of you are busy all the time, this may be a good banking option so you don't ever have to worry about your friends or family having enough money. Plus, you wouldn't have to take time out of your day or your employees' day to go to the bank to make a deposit or withdraw money.



5. How An Effective Guest Blogging Strategy Can Triple Your Traffic

In today's society, guest blogging is one of the top marketing techniques used by bloggers and online corporations. For those of you that guest blog to other places and never see an increase in traffic on your own web site or blog, your problem probably has to do with not having a proper guest blogging strategy. As John from GuestBloggingTactics.com mentions in the article above, having a good strategy can lead to more traffic. The bottom line: Find or develop a better guest blogging strategy if you want to increase your traffic and make more money. 



6.   Why Is It Better To Use Bad Grammar With Passwords?

According to a study done by researchers from Carnegie Mellon University, it is better to use passwords that don't make much grammatical sense. The reason is due to an algorithm they have created that proves passwords are becoming more crackable. In the algorithm, words and phrases from password-cracking databases are joined together into grammatically correct sentences. If you have a grammatically correct password or were thinking about creating one, it's back to the drawing board for you.
  


7.   Facebook Graph Search May Become The New Search Engine Alternative

On January 15th, Facebook unveiled its newest innovation, Graph Search. With Graph Search, you can do things like search for restaurants by type, location, and friend preferences, photos of friends taken before 1990, search the web, 10-day forecast, etc. Having these types of search options may strengthen your social life both on and off the web and become your preferred search engine.
 


8. Amazon Auto Rip Service Is A Reminder Why Amazon Is The Leader In Ecommerce Sales

On January 10th, Amazon announced it would launch a new CD service called Auto Rip. The service rewards CD buyers with free digital versions of any CD they purchase on Amazon, assuming it is eligible. Amazon is also offering this service for any CD you've purchased from them since 1998. As a result, you can enhance your digital music collection without physically having to put a CD into your disc drive or buying songs from iTunes. This is also a great example of how to constantly be innovating in your business.
 


9.  Pentagon Branch Thinks Twitter Can Help Them Predict The Future

In early December of last year, the Office Of Naval Research, or ONR, announced its "Data to Decisions" program – a series of three-to-ten-year initiatives that will address the volume of information that threatens to overwhelm planners in the digital age. ONR wants to predict the future by monitoring places such as Twitter, blogs, and news. The bottom line: If ONR is right and Twitter can predict the future, then you better make sure you have an account so you can prepare for new innovations and market trends.
 


10. Lance Armstrong Controversy Reminds Us Why We Should Never Get Too Big For Our Britches

During a television interview with Oprah Winfrey on January 17th and 18th, Lance Armstrong admitted that he was doping when he won all seven of his Tour De France titles. His reputation of being an American hero is now diminished. This is a good reminder to us all that hard work and dedication is what's important, not winning all the time, and that cheating your way to the top is not the answer to success because you will answer for your actions. 



(This issue was written by staff reporter Steven Ward, with input from Denise Gosnell and Jynell Berkshire.)
Let us know your thoughts on today's issue.
Post your comments here.






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Jorge U. Saguinsin
To "be the best, do your best, expect the best" always

Largest Bubble in History Set to Explode - What Next?

Is this a true prediction?  Or is it like the Mayan prediction of the end of the world?

Many say, especially the Americans that things there are as good as ever?  Really?

USA will soon be an energy superpower.  What is this story?

Or just the US financial system that is at risk?  How must Americans prepare for this?  What about Filipinos there?  Filipinos here?

Will you still hold on to US stocks or US currency/Treasury Notes?

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Date: Mon, Jan 28, 2013 at 8:12 PM
Subject: Largest Bubble in History Set to Explode - What Next?




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Please find below a special message from our sponsor, Weiss Reasearch, Inc. They have some important information to share with you. Thank you.
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Soros: Currency War Looms, Expect 'More Fireworks, More Volatility'



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Date: Mon, Jan 28, 2013 at 5:13 AM
Subject: Soros: Currency War Looms, Expect 'More Fireworks, More Volatility'




Breaking News from Moneynews.com


Soros: Euro Here to Stay as Currency War Looms
URGENT: 'Financial War' Could Wipe Out 50% of Your Wealth, Warns Pentagon Adviser
Roubini: 'Hyped Up' BRICs Risk Success on Growing State
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Learn How a Pastor Turned $40,000 into $400,000.
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Jorge U. SaguinsinTo "be the best, do your best, expect the best" always

Obamacare Punishes Smokers With Big Fees; Ted Cruz, Scott Walker Fire Up Summit


The sin tax may have the same effect on PHL smokers.  The sin tax has pushed the retail (per stick) price to a minimum of PHP 4 and up to PHP 5 per stick.  I do not see this a deterrent to having vice or smoking.

A lot of smokers still abound and continue to irritate the lungs and noses of non smokers.


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Date: Mon, Jan 28, 2013 at 7:42 AM
Subject: Obamacare Punishes Smokers With Big Fees; Ted Cruz, Scott Walker Fire Up Summit



Breaking News from Newsmax.com

Newsmax at the National Review Summit: Gov. McDonnell, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, More
ALERT: 'Obamacare Survival Guide' Tops Best-Seller Lists as Massive New Law Begins
Obamacare to Hit Smokers With Huge Penalties
Tina Turner Swaps US Passport for Swiss Citizenship
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New Book Reveals How to Turn $10,000 Into $1,162,747
Prostate Size Can Greatly Affect Quality of Life and Sleep. What Size Is Yours? See This Photo.



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